Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Prime Time Self-Destruction On The Way For Republicans?

So far we have two caucuses and one primary down for the Republicans. Huckabee won Iowa, Romney got Wyoming (not that anyone but him really cares about that), and McCain won New Hampshire to die another day. The Republican field is in chaos. There is no front runner. Romney could win Michigan, his home state, which would definitely keep him going. Huckabee is poised to take South Carolina through the evangelical vote. Giuliani is waiting in Florida, the chaos definitely a plus for him if he is to have a chance. Then we have Super Tuesday on February 5th, who knows will happen there. It is quite possible those states will be split up throughout the field. Perhaps Huckabee gets the states with a large evangelical population, McCain the states with primaries open to independents, and Romney and Giuliani split large, closed states.

What if no one gets a majority of delegates? That possibility may seem far fetch, but I feel its becoming more and more real. I haven't heard the media talking about it yet, but its not without the realm of possibility. (Which is why I'm saying it now, so I can beat the media to it and say I told you so if it happens. Not too mention the media wasn't right about New Hampshire.) If that happens then the Republican Party won't have a nominee going into the Republican National Convention. How would we get a nominee there? The delegates keep casting ballots until someone has a nominee. So candidates would be trying to steal each other's delegates and cut deals; a massive barbecue of the party with a lot of pork being offered from all sides. If that happens there goes the well-oiled, unified Republican machine in a flame of prime time self-destruction with a record number of viewers. Makes for good TV, but for a lousy chance of winning in November.

To makes matters worse, the convention isn't until Labor Day, leaving barely two months for the eventual nominee to run. The Convention is later this year since the Democrats are holding their convention later to avoid a conflict with the Olympics. The advantage this gives them probably an accident but if not, one of their most brilliant political moves, if this doomsday (if you're a Republican) scenario takes place.

Hopefully, if no one has a majority the candidates will be able to work something out so that we can have a nominee before September, and avoid four nights of political WWF. Some candidate would hopefully offer their support to another in exchange for a vice presidency. Although if Romney is in the lead I don't know if he can offer a vice presidency to the other candidates after the beating they have given him. But who knows if this will even happen, we still have to get past Michigan next week.

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