Communism ready to fall in Cuba?
Could we be nearing the end of a Communist Cuba? Could we finally import legally Cuban Cigars again, which hasn't happened since President Kennedy got 1,000 before signing the embargo. Fidel Castro is in the hospital right now, getting the best medical care a communist health care system can provide, no doubt. Wouldn't it be ironic if the only hospital that could save him were Americans? We don't know when Castro will die, but it has too happen eventually, he's not immortal.
But what will happen after he finally does go? Will communism fall. Right now Castro's brother has been put in charge without too much disturbance. The lights are still on in Havana. This does not lend itself as a good sign for the American government. It should be pointed out just because a dictator dies doesn't mean his whole regime will fall. Chairman Mao in China died and China is still communist.
Will and should the US take measures when Castro finally goes to stop a transition of power to Castro's successor? Are we going to launch another Bay of Pigs Invasion, for we will no longer have to keep our promise to Castro no to invade if he's dead. (Made during the resolution of the Cuban Missile Crisis.) The US hasn't had the best luck so far at nation building, do we take another stab at liberation or cut our losses. Don't get me wrong, I would like to see communism come to an end in Cuba and democracy prosper. I don't think that establishing democracy there would be as hard as doing it in Iraq or similar nations. Or rather, democracy could take root there, the people wouldn't be hostile to democracy itself, but I don't know if the US can force it on Cuba without resistance. But should we continue our attempts at American Imperialism or liberation? (Maybe we could turn Cuba back into a playground for the rich.) Just what we need in the eyes of the rest of the world is another invasion. And we would be reinforcing that view that nations without nuclear arms get invaded, those with them don't. Although we don't want to have another half a century with Cuba under communist control.
If Castro's brother does take over successfully, and we don't take the military option, do we persist with the embargo for who knows how many more years? One has to wonder how much of Cuba's problems are from communism and how much are from the US embargo. Or do we try what we are doing with China and open up in trade in hope that capitalizing will lead to democratizing? I personally don't think after Castro goes we should hold the same course. The whole point was that the embargo would lead to communism falling, and if it doesn't happen when Castro dies it probably means it's not going to work.
Relatively, Castro seems to be insignificant in light of the other Axis of Evil powers, Iran and North Korea. He doesn't have any weapons of mass destructions under construction. I'd take this benign communist leader over a Islamic extremist government or stark totalitarian communist regime.(Although I am no fan of Castro nor communism, Castro had tried to run for election legally but the US backed former President Batista who took over before the elections. He was left with seemingly no other choice but to take over more aggressively. However, once he did defeat Batista he could have returned Cuba to democracy, but he did not. So it is partially the US's fault for the situation there.) The people in Cuba have food, those in North Korea don't.
Don't you wish we could go back to the good old days of the Cold War, when we were under a constant threat of utter world annihilation less than an hour away but where it was tacitly understood that those weapons wouldn't be used because of that same threat? (known as Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD)) When we easily knew who our enemy was? (a stereotypical Russian versus a stereotypical Arab) You never know how good you had it until you lost it. Cuba was getting missiles, we quarantine them, cut a deal with the Soviets who pull them out and reign Castro in. If only we could do that now with North Korea and Iran and settle the whole matter in thirteen days. Hey, there's an idea. Let's quarantine Iran. We could say they have bird flu.