Tuesday, May 01, 2007

A New Plan For Iraq

Today President Bush vetoed the funding bill for the Iraq war on the grounds that it includes a time table for a troop pullout. Why does Bush say he is against this? Because if we tell the terrorists when we are going to leave then the terrorists are going to lie in wait until we leave, then spring up. So lets examine this for a moment.

First of all. If the terrorists and insurgents in Iraq would just stop fighting if we told them when we'd leave until we left, why have they not stopped fighting? The Democrats want to set a date by which we will leave. But Bush would agree that we'd leave when we get the job done. So why don't the terrorists lie in wait now, so that we will think we won and leave, and then spring up. They may not know what date we are going to leave by, but they do know the conditions under which we'd leave, victory, and could make that happen. So my point is not to give the terrorists advice, but to say we may give them too much credit. We're assuming that they are, well, rational. But they are not rational, or the situation in Iraq wouldn't be in Iraq.

I think they might just keep fighting either way. Don't forget they are in a civil war, and if they stopped that would give others a chance to get a firm grasp on power before the chaos starts back up. And then of course, which terrorists. We have Sunnis fighting Shites, are they really going to cooperate long enough so that we will pull out? In history there are examples of such cooperation. During World War II the Communists led by Mao and the Nationalists had a truce in order to focus their efforts on repelling the Japanese invaders. But if the various Iraqi factions would do this, why haven't they already joined forces to try and repel America rather than continue to fight themselves?

If we really cared about creating a strong Iraqi state then we'd declare war on that state. I don't mean war with the insurgents, I mean war with the whole US backed Iraqi government. Right now we're fighting Shites and Sunni terrorists, but not the state itself. If their government is being attacked that would grant it a level of legitimacy in the Middle East that we could never attain anyway else. A war is just what Iraq needs to unite it. We were united in our fight against the British, Iraq could be united in their fight against us. We would then have a peaceful, prosperous, democratic America hating Iraq, which is the best we can probably hope for. Case in point, France, we actually liberated them and they don't like us, how can we expect anything better from Iraq? Plus, we do well in conventional wars, its these wars after we've taken over that get us. So, by declaring war against the Iraqi government, we get to fight another conventional war which we can win, and then get bogged down after the Mission Accomplished. (Which may I be the first to wish you a Happy Mission Accomplished Day, this being the 3rd anniversary of the beloved day when it was announced by our glorious leader that we were at an end of major combat operations in Iraq.)

We're probably not going to go the route of declaring war on our own puppet state, too hard to get Congress to go along with it. But, its really a win-win situation for Bush if he agreed to a time table. If he is right and the terrorists did lay down arms until after the date we set, then he's right and he can say "told you so," in a very presidential manner of course. And it could be spun as the Americans defeated the terrorists in Iraq, passed power on to the Iraqis, who then dropped the ball. The buck stops there, make the Iraqis the scapegoat if all goes wrong. So if he's oppose to a time table because the violence is going to stop until we pull out, then therefore if he knew the violence wouldn't stop, then he would agree to a time table. Quod erat demonstratum we could pull out gracefully with our heads held high as the country is continuing to fall apart, as the logic would dictate. Bush would have to agree to that.

Then we have the whole if we're not fighting the terrorists away then we'll be fighting them at home. But in Iraq we have Sunnis and Shites and Americans fighting each other. So, if we step out of the equation that will leave Sunnis and Shites fighting each other away. Therefore, if they're not fighting each other overseas they'll be fighting us at home. This means the last thing we want is the civil war to end in Iraq. They fighting themselves would mean they're not fighting us. If we do achieve a peaceful, stable, prosperous, democratic Iraq then the attention will turn back to us at home. So we should really pull out but define victory as the fighting continuing, keeping us safe at home, which is the only thing that really matters.

But Iran is controlled by Shites, so although it would be preferable for an indefinite civil war, if one side is to eventually triumph then we need that side to be the Sunnis, so to form a buffer state with Iran. And since Iran is a strong, totalitarian Shite state, we need a strong, totalitarian Sunni Iraq. Sadly, the perfect guy to be the counterpart to Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Saddam Hussein, was executed. (Perhaps because Shites say our plan to back Saddam's bid for power, making our whole invasion of Iraq and dethronement of Saddam in vain.)

So, we have a couple of options. If it is true that the terrorists would just stop fighting until we leave if only we announced when we'd leave, then we can use that as an advantage. We announce a date to leave. Then peace breaks out in Iraq. Our casualties stop occurring, we can remove some of our troops, and spend less money the Iraq war while this date is approaching. Thus, peace means ostensibly victory, therefore we have attained victory. During this time Iraqis will get use to peace and prosperity, as to dry up the insurgents support later down the road. Iraq's government will have time to strengthen itself, prepare its army, etc. Then when we do pull out they'd be better prepared. But, why rush if there is peace, no casualties, and a skeleton army left basically on vacation? So we then announce we our postponing the withdrawal, and announce a new date. We'll just give the insurgents excuses so they won't be suspicious. The President forgot to purchase the plane tickets, our bad. You know how hard it is to book a flight anytime soon, especially with Jet Blue cancelling every weekend on us. You get the idea. So we indefinitely postpone our withdrawal, leaving us in a perpetual state of near victory conditions. We won't be able to pull all the troops out, but it will be like our bases in Korea, potentially very dangerous, but effectively not, and which we likewise never officially won nor lost.

To the Democrats I say this. Bush has said he opposes setting a time table because that's telling our enemies when we'll leave. That doesn't mean he doesn't have a time table, he's just not telling anyone so it doesn't get leaked out, you know how Washington is. If he told you all you'd just blurt it out to get the credit. Shame on you for opposing the President's secret time table by pursuing publicly the matter of a time table. Do you know how much the President would like to tell you what date he picked, but can't because he's doing what's best for the country? One day we're going to reach the date he set, and it will be on the evening news that we left Iraq that day. And we'll have avoided the whole problem of having the insurgents stop fighting temporarily, having continued fighting the whole time we're in Iraq without missing a beat. How will you feel then?

The other way we'd move leave is if we attain victory. So who is standing in the way of us leaving Iraq? The media. Everyday they report on how dire the situation is. If they'd only broadcast good news then America would think everything is going well, that a prosperous, peaceful, democratic Iraq existed. Then we would say we had attained victory and leave. But no, they just have to keep on talking about how bad everything is. Our troops could already be home if it wasn't for the media. George Bush wants victory before we leave. The Democrats want our troops home. If we'd just tell the American people that we have victory we could all be happy. (Besides maybe Iraqis.) A little white lie never hurt anyone, and could have gotten us out of Iraq before last year's midterm elections, saving us from the oppressive rule of our Democrat overlords.

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